docs: add rationale for 72-hour half-life choice

Explains why 72h calendar half-life was chosen:
- Decay applies to wall-clock time, not working time
- Users work ~8h/day (1/3 of 24h period)
- 72h calendar = ~24h of working time = one full workday
- Prevents overnight breaks from penalizing scores

This calibrates decay to actual engagement patterns rather
than raw calendar time.
This commit is contained in:
stellarshenson
2026-01-25 11:51:20 +01:00
parent a76c99d6ab
commit cdf1e5eaa4
2 changed files with 17 additions and 1 deletions

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@@ -251,4 +251,4 @@ This journal tracks substantive work on documents, diagrams, and documentation c
**Result**: Changed Activity column header from "Activity (7 days)" to just "Activity" in activity.html
83. **Task - Activity monitor half-life to 72h (3 days)**: Extended decay half-life for smoother scoring<br>
**Result**: Updated JUPYTERHUB_ACTIVITYMON_HALF_LIFE default from 48h to 72h across Dockerfile, custom_handlers.py, activity_sampler.py, settings_dictionary.yml, README.md, and docs/activity-tracking-methodology.md. With 72h half-life, activity from 3 days ago has 50% weight, providing more stable activity scores for users with irregular schedules
**Result**: Updated JUPYTERHUB_ACTIVITYMON_HALF_LIFE default from 48h to 72h across Dockerfile, custom_handlers.py, activity_sampler.py, settings_dictionary.yml, README.md, and docs/activity-tracking-methodology.md. Added rationale section explaining why 72h: decay applies to wall-clock time, not working time. A user working 8h/day is active only 1/3 of each 24h period - with 72h calendar half-life, ~24 working hours (3 days × 8h) have 50% weight, effectively calibrating decay to one full workday of engagement. This prevents overnight breaks from aggressively penalizing scores

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@@ -9,6 +9,22 @@ Our current approach uses **exponential decay scoring**:
- Weight formula: `weight = exp(-λ × age_hours)` where `λ = ln(2) / half_life`
- Default half-life: 72 hours / 3 days (activity from 3 days ago worth 50%)
### Why 72-hour Half-life?
The decay applies to **wall-clock time**, not working time. A typical user works 8-9 hours per day - roughly 1/3 of a 24-hour period. This creates a mismatch between calendar decay and effective working activity decay:
| Calendar Half-life | Working Hours in Period | Effective Work Half-life |
|--------------------|-------------------------|--------------------------|
| 24 hours | ~8 hours | ~8 hours of work |
| 72 hours (3 days) | ~24 hours | ~24 hours of work |
With a 72-hour calendar half-life:
- A user working 8h/day accumulates ~24 hours of working time over 3 calendar days
- Activity from those 24 working hours has 50% weight
- The decay is effectively calibrated to **one full workday** of actual engagement
This makes scores more stable for users with typical work patterns. A 24-hour half-life would be too aggressive - yesterday's full workday would already be at 50% weight before today even starts, penalizing normal overnight breaks
## Industry Approaches
### 1. Exponential Moving Average (EMA) / Time-Decay Systems